Hidden Information and its Impact on Decision Making

Thinking In Bets, Annie Duke, 5/7/2019, Penguin

By Larry Tribble, PhD

As a professional poker player, Annie Duke uses her experience in high-stakes decision making to help us understand hidden information and why it matters. As leaders, we are all called on to make decisions when we don’t have all of the facts. This book covers how to get better at it.

Decades of experience at the poker table has given Duke the opportunity to develop decision-making strategies based on the concept that all decisions are actually bets. In poker, people make decisions that lead to clear outcomes – winning money or losing money – these bets are quantifiable risks. And, as poker players understand, because of hidden information, even good decisions don’t work out all the time.

But does this make them bad decisions?

We all have biases around what we “know” to be true. However, while making decisions we have to work around these biases while objectively evaluating our beliefs and learning from our past.  We ultimately need to understand how these biases affect our decisions and what to do about them. This is where Duke’s book comes in.

It’s an entertaining, easy read and covers the topic well – and understanding what poker players mean by “resulting” is worth the cover price.

CAVU recently hosted a book club focused on discussing Duke’s Thinking in Bets. Interested in joining us for the next session? Visit our website for more information.

This book is also available at the CAVU Innovation Library at Innovation Depot in Birmingham.

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Want to take a deeper dive into the ideas in this book? Check out our podcast HERE

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